Sports betting can be very profitable if you know the techniques typically the “smart money” bettors employ to consistently make funds. One of the primary secrets that intelligent money gamblers use will be knowing when NOT for you to bet.
Here’s a great example of this. I analyzed typically the Western side California vs. Louisville game, and concluded that West Las vegas had typically the edge in the activity. However , بت فوروارد and i also came to the realization that there are a great deal of random and capricious factors, and recommended to my clients that they perform not wager on that game. Here is my own analysis I released ahead of the game:
West Va or Louisville
This sport has all the symptoms of being one associated with the best games regarding the year, using each teams coming into the action 7-0. It’s #3 graded West Virginia against. #5 ranked Louisville, both equally together with high-scoring offenses and stingy defenses. Last year’s sport was a classic, having Western side Virginia coming again from getting down huge in the 4th 1 / 4 to winning inside overtime, however,.
So what’s the game appear like this year?
In the event this sport were turning into played from a natural field, West Va would likely probably be a 4-6 point favorite. Since the particular game is within Louisville, WVU is a 1-point underdog. Let’s see if this makes sense…
West Virginia is usually on an unprecedented roll. Many people haven’t lost since April. 1, 2005, intending 14-0 since they dropped to Florida Tech. On the last two times they’re 13-5 ATS too. They’re also 7-2 ATS in their last being unfaithful activities overall, and 8-2 OBTAIN THE in their previous 10 ROAD games.
These types of are some very amazing stats that tilt the particular scales in favor associated with WVU with regard to tonight’s game. Plus, often the extra reward is that WVU can be GETTING +1 point. This may not seem like much, but in a in close proximity match-up similar to this, that more point could make the big difference between a new push and a loss.
But what about Louisville?
Louisville’s statistics are generally almost as good as WVU’s -except when it comes to Louisville in the point spread. In their particular past 10 games, Louisville is actually 4-6 ATS. That said, Louisville is still 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home video games.
In addition to if you’re leaning in the direction of WVU, here’s a intimidating stat… Louisville hasn’t shed in your house since 12 20, 2003! During this present run Louisville is hitting 49. four points for each game at home, while hitting only giving up 15. 6 points per game with home. In case anyone did not do the mathematics, that means considering his or her last home loss they’ve averaged beating their particular opposing team by way of about thirty four factors per game.
Furthermore impressive, the average line in these games has only been recently 21 points. That means Louisville has beaten typically the get spread around, on average, simply by 13 points per sport at home due to the fact the year 2003.
Wow… how can a person go against that?
Here’s just how…
Most of those stats had been piled up during the 2005 season. This year, 2006, Louisville has been closer to great than great. They have already got recent games where they have already only scored 28, 3, 24 points. These online games weren’t against Ohio St. or Michigan. They ended up against Cincinnati, Syracuse, in addition to Kansas St.
The bottom line is that this is still the close video game to phone. Nevertheless the things i look regarding is West Virginia’s safety to carry the day time. If Cincinnati, Syracuse, and even Kansas St. can most hold Louisville under 25 points, then there’s not any purpose to think WVU can’t have one to often the low to middle of the 20’s. My honest professional recommendation can be to lay off this game and certainly not wager at all. There will be better video games this quick with more clear-cut benefits.
The final score of this game was Louisville forty four, West California 34. Lousiville won because West Las vegas had 6 fumbles and even allowed Lousiville to give back a new punt for some sort of TD. The results was the fact that West Virginia’s advantage wasn’t so big which they could still win after making so many mistakes. By simply not betting on this kind of activity, people really serious regarding gambling saved money many people can offer better use on future games.